What is the Long Term Care Revolution?

  • The Long Term Care Revolution is about radically rethinking long term care.

  • It's about stimulating innovation, new models and markets for dependent living in the future.

  • It's about creating new and desirable alternatives, leading to structural and economic change for the future.

  • It is not about reforming what exists, but about constructing something new between now and 2040. 

 

Why is it important?

The Demographic Challenge

  • The 2011 census for England shows that 16.4% of the population was aged 65 and over (Office for National Statistics, 2011), the highest seen in any census.

  • More important than the growth in numbers of older adults, is that of the very advanced in age.

  • The numbers of those 90+ were 13,000 in 1911, 340,000 in 2001 and 430,000 in 2011. The key trend is that the demand for long-term care will continue to increase because of increasing life expectancy and ageing. 

The Economic Challenge

  • Public expenditure on long term care is expected to at least double and possibly triple by 2050. (Wittenberg et al, 2004)

  • Long term care spending in the UK would need to rise by around 315% in real terms between 2000 and 2051, to meet demographic pressures if funding arrangements remain unchanged or unresolved (Wittenberg et al, 2004).

  • Residential places (in residential care homes, nursing homes and hospitals) would need to expand from approximately 450 thousand in 2000 to 1.13m in 2051, an increase of around 151%, to keep pace with demographic pressures (Community Care Statistics, 2001).

The Social Challenge

  • In 2011 approximately 5.8 million people were providing unpaid care in England and Wales, representing just over one tenth of the population.

  • The support ratio of people of working age to people over the age of 65 is declining, from 3.3 : 1 in 2004 to an estimated 2.2 : 1 by 2040 (Wittenberg et al, 2004). Two fifths all older people (about 3.9 million) say the television is their main company (Age UK, 2014)

  • 59% of adults aged over 52 who report poor health say they feel lonely some of the time or often, compared to 21% who say they are in excellent health (Beaumont, 2013)

The Personal Challenge

  • 72% think that the long-term care system is ‘out of date and requires an overhaul to ensure it is ‘fit for purpose'; rising to 83% of those aged 55 or over.

  • 10% believe that it will be much better by the time they need it.

  • 80% believe that provision is going to get worse with our ageing population.

  • 66% would most like to see innovations which ensure choice, control and autonomy whilst still having long-term support. (http:www.populus.co.uk)

The Opportunity!

  • The total estimated value of the long term care market in the UK in 2011 was £20.4 billion.

  • By 2030 it is forecast to grow to £46.8 billion.

  • By 2040 it is forecast to grow to £66.8 billion

  • Approximately 90% of residential care demand comes from private settings.

  • Top 10 private companies account for 20% of UK private sector capacity [Source: Frost and Sullivan analysis,2013].

More Details

  • A summary of the reasoning behind the Long Term Care Revolution can be found here under Background and Challenge. . 

 

What is our vision?

To provide everyone with options for living with higher levels of support which maximise the capabilities of individuals, carers and families to enjoy quality of life and retain as much independence as possible.

To replace what exists today with a dynamic market for sustainable and affordable lifestyle and care choices which also fuel economic growth.

 

Who's behind it?

The Long Term Care Revolution is run by Innovate UK, the UK's innovation agency. Innovate UK is a public body operating at arm's length from the Government, reporting to the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills (BIS). Its goal is to accelerate economic growth by stimulating and supporting business-led innovation.

The Long Term Care Revolution is just one of these programmes within the remit of Innovate UK's Assisted Living Innovation Platform (ALIP). ALIP is focused on delivering a wide ranging programme to enable the ageing population and those with long-term health conditions to live with greater independence.