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PURE Research Programme

Who's who in the consortia

The listing below is in alphabetical order by surname. To find an expert on a particular topic, consult the listing by subject area on our "About us" page. To contact an expert via email, click their name in the list below.


Surnames A-C Surnames D-L Surnames M-P Surnames R-Z


Surnames A-C

Name / affiliation Expertise Role in research programme

Malcolm Anderson (Bristol)

Water movement through soils and links to the prediction of floods and landslides. He is currrently working with the Disaster Risk Management Group (Latin America and Caribbean) at the World Bank in Washington DC on optimal ways of delivering on-the-ground implementation of landslide mitigation measures to the most vulnerable communities. CREDIBLE

Willy Aspinall (Bristol)

Formalised use of expert judgement in decision-making for low probability / high consequence events in circumstances of scientific or engineering uncertainty. Probabilistic assessment of earthquake and volcanic hazards and risks. CREDIBLE

Paul Bates (Bristol)

Prediction of flood inundation through the development of new computer models, the use of data from new airborne, satellite and ground sensors and through the better characterization of risk and uncertainty. CREDIBLE

Andrew Bell (Edinburgh)

Tectonic and volcano-tectonic seismicity: the physics and statistics of earthquake-earthquake and earthquake-volcano interactions, triggering and forecasting. RACER co-investigator for seismic hazard assessment

Keith Beven (Lancaster)


Hydrological modelling and understanding the prediction of uncertainties associated with environmental models. CREDIBLE: Leader of work package 3: Accounting for uncertainties that cannot be included in the Bayesian framework.

Alison Black (Reading)

Simplification and information design research RACER co-investigator, working to assess public and risk professionals' understanding and use of risk information, and to develop design solutions that increase understanding and effective use of that information.

Nataliya Bulygina (Imperial College)

Bayesian uncertainty estimation of hydrological model structure and model parameters. Probabilistic prediction for ungauged / undergoing change basins. Integrated surface / subsurface hydrological modeling RACER co-investigator for research on flood hazard and risk

Wouter Buytaert (Imperial College)

Wouter is an expert in monitoring and modelling of the water cycle. He has a special interest in web-based sensing and simulation, model coupling and data analysis. Leader of flooding research for RACER

Richard Chandler (UCL)

Richard is a statistician with many years' experience of environmental problems, in hydrology and climatology in particular. Leader of RACER consortium, with additional responsibility for work package on evidence synthesis for real-time event management and for planning.

Andrew Charlton-Perez (Reading)

Atmospheric dynamics and predictability. Leader of RACER work package on communication and decision-making

Surnames D-L

Name / affiliation Expertise Role in research programme

Helen Dacre (Reading)

The dynamics of weather systems and their role in transporting atmospheric pollutants Leader of research on volcanic ash dispersal for RACER

Simon Day (UCL)

Simon's research is on tsunami, landslide and volcanic hazards and the use of geological and other observational data to test and develop numerical models of tsunamis and landslides. Leader of research on tsunami hazard and risk within RACER

Jim Freer (Bristol)

Uncertainty analysis in environmental modelling, field experiments and computer model simulations to understand process mechanisms for hydrology and water quality, flood forecasting and flood inundation under climate change, hillslope processes, catchment hydrology. CREDIBLE

Katsuichiro Goda (Bristol)

Probabilistic seismic hazard and risk analysis; strong ground motion prediction; effectiveness of seismic risk mitigation techniques; seismic loss estimation of spatially distributed structures; and seismic risk management and decision-making (including earthquake insurance portfolio management). CREDIBLE

Michael Goldstein (Durham)

Michael is a Bayesian statistician with many years experience. He has particular expertise in the quantification of uncertainty for complex physical systems modelled by computer simulators. Leader of RACER work package on accounting for unquantifiable uncertainties

Serge Guillas (UCL)

Serge is a statistician and Leverhulme Research Fellow working on stratospheric ozone and climate change. His research interests are in Functional Data Analysis, Uncertainty Quantification of complex computer models, as well as Time Series, Spatial Statistics, and Environmental Statistics. He published the first statistical calibration and emulation of a General Circulation Model for the Ionosphere, as well as the first emulations of earthquake and tsunami models and recently assessed ENSO's influence on seismicity. Leader of RACER work package on accounting for model limitations through comprehensive quantification of uncertainties

Jim Hall (Oxford)

Uncertainty handling and decision-support methods for flood and coastal risk analysis. Application of generalized theories of probability to civil engineering and environmental systems, including random set theory, the theory of imprecise probabilities and info-gap theory. CREDIBLE: Leader of work package 5: Framework and protocols for linking hazard / footprint / risk models to decision-making.

Andy Hart (Fera)

Andy works at the Food and Environment Research Agency (Fera), an agency of Defra, developing improved approaches for the analysis of risk and uncertainty and applying them to different areas of health and environmental risk and policy. Contributing to RACER work package on accounting for unquantifiable uncertainties, and on work relating to use and perception of risk models.

Lisa Hill (Bristol)

  CREDIBLE Project Manager

Adam Lea (UCL)

Seasonal prediction of hurricanes, typhoons and tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Northwest Pacific and Australian regions. RACER researcher, working on development of short-term probabilistic wind speed forecasts for operational use.

Surnames M-P

Name / affiliation Expertise Role in research programme

Rachel McCloy (Reading)

Human judgment and decision-making. Risk perception and risk understanding. RACER co-investigator, contributing to work on perception and communication of risk and uncertainty

Patrick McSharry (Oxford)

Patrick takes a multidisciplinary approach to developing quantitative techniques for forecasting, classification, decision-making and risk management. His research focuses on probabilistic forecasting of nonlinear complex systems, prediction analytics and machine learning and he is particularly interested in how decision-makers and policy-makers integrate information from quantitative and qualitative models. RACER co-investigator, focusing on the development and use of risk models based on uncertain hazard assessments.

Ian Main (Edinburgh)

Ian is a seismologist working on the population dynamics of earthquakes as a complex, non-linear (unreasonable) system. He is particularly interested in operational earthquake forecasting, from long-term seismic hazard maps to shorter-term alerts due to triggering processes. Leader of seismic hazard research for RACER

Roger Musson (BGS)

Roger has been Head of Seismic Hazard for BGS since 1988, and has been responsible for developing BGS's capability to undertake seismic hazard research. He is also active in the study of macroseismology and historical earthquakes. RACER co-investigator with Ian Main on the effects of uncertainty in seismic hazard assessment.

Ken Mylne (Met Office)

Predicting the impact of weather on society, based on the weather prediction capabilities of the NWP system. Leading partner in the development of the Hazard Impact Model (HIM) as a framework to be used for the prediction of impact from a wide range of hazards within the Natural Hazards Partnership (NHP). CREDIBLE

Mark Naylor (Edinburgh)

Numerical and computational modelling of complexity in the Earth's tectonic evolution: from earthquakes to mountain building. Techniques developed and employed include Discrete Element Modelling of the structural evolution of collisional orogens and cellular automata / statistical mechanical evolution of near critical earthquake systems. RACER co-investigator for seismic hazard assessment

Helen Owen (Fera)

Helen is a statistician and works as the Statistics Consultancy Manager at the Food and Environment Research Agency (Fera). She has specialist skills in computer programming and software development. Contributing to RACER research on software development to account for unquantifiable uncertainties.

Jeremy Phillips (Bristol)

Physical Volcanologist with research interests in the fluid dynamics of geological and volcanic two-phase flows, and a particular focus on developing predictive models for volcanic hazard. CREDIBLE

Surnames R-Z

Name / affiliation Expertise Role in research programme

Gerald Roberts (Birkbeck)

Gerald is an earthquake geologist who carries out field studies supported by numerical models of the rates of slip and earthquake recurrence on active faults. This information is used to quantify seismic hazards through communication with civil protection authorities. RACER co-investigator for seismic hazard assessment

Jonty Rougier (Bristol)

Model-based inference for complex systems: combining observational data, evaluations of models, and expert judgements. CREDIBLE: Leader of work package 1: A Bayesian framework for forward propagation of uncertainty including assessment of model limitations.

Peter Sammonds (UCL)

Physics and mechanics of geological materials, with applications to the impacts of climate change and natural hazards such as earthquake and tsunami RACER co-investigator for seismic hazard assessment

Mark Saunders (UCL)

Mark has 15 years experience of monitoring, modelling and predicting the uncertainty and risk associated with tropical storms worldwide, European extreme weather and global drought. His team's research has won prestigious insurance industry awards and brought substantive humanitarian benefit. RACER co-investigator, working on development of short-term probabilistic wind speed forecasts for operational use

Steve Sparks (Bristol)


Quantitative studies of geological processes using a combination of field studies, laboratory experiments, analytical studies and theoretical modelling. Research in volcanology includes investigation of magmatic and volcanic flows through analogue experiments, numerical modelling and theory development; and development of novel approaches to hazard and risk assessment. Applied research includes risk assessment methodologies for environmental and natural hazards, nuclear waste disposal and mining. CREDIBLE

David Stephenson (Exeter)

Development and novel application of statistical methods to understand climate processes and predictions. He is renowned for his expertise in three main areas: climate modes and weather regimes; global warming trends in extreme weather events; forecast verification/calibration. CREDIBLE: Leader of work package 4: Expanding the Bayesian framework to merge multiple sources of information.

Jon Tawn (Lancaster)

Wide interests in Extreme value theory and methods: multivariate extreme value and joint probability problems; time series and covariate modelling for extreme values; structuring asymptotically justified models to capture process structure. Applications include environmental modelling in hydrology and oceanography. CREDIBLE

Sarah Touati (Edinburgh)

Researcher in statistical seismology with a background in physics and experience in software development. Expertise in statistical modelling of earthquake occurrence, with maximum likelihood, MCMC, and various techniques for model selection. RACER researcher on seismic hazard assessment

Thorsten Wagener (Bristol)

Systems methods to advance hydrologic theory, and to build and evaluate predictive models for sustainable water management. Particular current interests are predictions in ungauged basins, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, catchment classification, and the integrated assessment of change impacts. Leader of the CREDIBLE consortium, and leader of work package 2: A diagnostic framework for backward analysis of controls on footprint and risk model output.

Matt Watson (Bristol)

Inversion of remotely-sensed data to retrieve physical parameters of volcanic plumes and clouds over several spatial scales, using both ground- and satellite-based techniques. CREDIBLE