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PURE Research Programme

Blog posts

PURE Research Blog: How well do ensemble forecasts of European windspeed represent uncertainty? By Prof Mark Saunders, UCL

The primary goal of the PURE Research Programme is to improve the assessment and quantification of uncertainty and risk in natural hazards; this to benefit scientific progress, risk management...

Summer School: Risk and uncertainty in natural hazards, 7-11 July 2014

Summer School: Risk and uncertainty in natural hazards, 7-11 July 2014 Engineers’ House, The Promenade, Clifton Down, Bristol, BS8 3NB The  Cabot Institute , in conjunction...

PURE Research Blog: Objective and Subjective Probabilities in Natural Hazard Risk Assessment, by Dr Stephen Jewson, RMS Ltd London

Objective and Subjective Probabilities in Risk Assessment Quantitative risk assessment often uses parametric models, and these models are often based on very little data, making the...

PURE Research Blog: Understanding probability and uncertainty, Dr Rachel McCloy, University of Reading

To read Dr Rachel McCloy from the University of Reading's PURE blog entitled Understanding probability and uncertainty, please  click here

PURE Research Blog: Spurious realism, by Dr Jonathan Rougier, University of Bristol

I'd like to share the transcript of a short presentation I gave  recently, at a session called All About The Model at the Battle of  Ideas organised by the Institute of Ideas at the...

PURE Research Blog: Combining evidence, by Professor Richard Chandler, UCL

To read Professor Richard Chandler's PURE Research Blog, Combining evidence, click here

PURE Research Blog: Tracking uncertainties in flood risk modelling by Dr Wouter Buytaert, Imperial College London

To estimate flood hazards, as any environmental process, one typically has to construct a long workflow of data processing. Behind, say, a flood risk maps, sits a large body of different...

PURE Research Blog: Designing to communicate uncertainty, by Professor Alison Black, Reading University

Designing to communicate uncertainty. In the latter stages of the RACER stream of the PURE project, the Centre for Information Design Research at the University of Reading will be working...

PURE Research Blog: Quantifying the unquantifiable: floods, by Professor Keith Beven, Lancaster University

Quantifying the unquantifiable: floods We had the first joint meeting of the RACER and CREDIBLE consortia in the area of floods at Imperial College last week.   Saying something...

PURE Research blog by Mark Woodhouse from Univeristy of Bristol: PlumeRise – modelling the interaction of volcanic plumes and meteorology.

PlumeRise –  modelling the interaction of volcanic plumes and meteorology. Explosive volcanic eruptions, such as eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull 2010, Grimsvötn 2011 and Puyehue...

Sense About Science: Making Sense of Uncertainty

The PURE community may be interested in the recently-released report Making Sense of Uncertainty from the group Sense About Science : see ...

PURE Research Blog by Laura Dawkins and David Stephenson, University of Exeter: Variation and Uncertainty in European Windstorm Footprints

Variation and Uncertainty in European Windstorm Footprints   Windstorms, or extra-tropical cyclones with intense surface wind speeds, are a major source of risk for...

PURE Research Blog by Ken MyIne, Science Manager at the MetOffice: Uncertainty in Weather Forecasting

  Uncertainty in Weather Forecasting Uncertainty is an inherent part of weather forecasting – the very word forecast, coined by Admiral Fitzroy who founded the Met...

PURE Research Blog by Jeremy Phillips, University of Bristol

  Lahars - Floods of Volcanic Mud In this installment of the PURE blog, I will introduce some of the hazards and research questions concerning the strange-sounding Lahar, or...

PURE Research Blog by Ian Main, University of Edinburgh

The Seismology Strand - Plans and Progress Earthquakes are a major and increasing global risk, both in developed and emergent economies. The front line of defence is the proper...

PURE Research Blog by Katsu Goda

Update on 'earthquake hazard/risk' activities in CREDIBLE On 20 th  April, 2013, another dreadful earthquake disaster occurred in Sichuan, China. The earthquake was a...

PURE Research Blog by Simon Day

Current uncertainty in tsunami science The effect of the March 11 th , 2011 Tohoku tsunami upon many insurers was to alert them to the need for the insurance industry to pay more...

PURE research vignettes

Avid bloggers will have wondered what has been happening in PURE over the last couple of months. In brief: new appointments are all in place and beavering away at their respective tasks, and the...

Lecture at the Institute of Civil Engineers

The PURE community may be interested in the 14th Mallet Milne lecture "A history of British seismology", to be delivered at the Institute of Civil Engineers in London on 29th May....

CREDIBLE-Cabot Summer School

Risk and uncertainty in natural hazards 15-19 July 2013   The school is open to postgraduates, early career researchers and scientists from industry and government...
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