PURE (Probability, Uncertainty and Risk in the Environment) is a new Knowledge Exchange Network and Research Programme.  Its aim is to be the leading national network bringing together researchers, industrialists, and policy-makers in uncertainty and risk for natural hazards, through collaborative working, knowledge exchange, and the development of best practice.  It will help to shape the direction of future research and provide valuable information to practitioners in environmental risk management.  

Running alongside, as a sub-group of, the main PURE research activities is a web portal, or 'Experimental Zone', designed by the British Geological Survey to facilitate the sharing and fusion of models and data from a variety of different sources.  To find out more about this sub-group and how to join, please visit the PURE Portal and Experimental Zone pages.  

In July 2012, the NERC announced that £4m has been awarded for the PURE Programme.  The PURE Programme is managed by two consortia of academic institutions and industrial partners, who will undertake PURE-related studies of priority hazards, including modelling of floods, windstorms, earthquakes, tsunamis, droughts, lahars, and volcanic ash dispersal.  Please follow this link to find out more about PURE

Probability, Uncertainty and Risk in the Environment

About the PURE Network

Network aims and
membership benefits

Collaboration opportunities

Funding mechanisms for collaborations related to PURE

PURE Portal and Experimental Zone

Integrated modelling resources for natural hazards

Research Consortia
Details of RACER's and CREDIBLE's research programmes



The PURE Knowledge Exchange Network is delivered on behalf of NERC and Innovate UK by the Smith Institute for Industrial Mathematics and System Engineering in conjunction with the British Geological Survey (BGS), and the Environment Agency (EA).

CREDIBLE Publications

You can read the Consortium on Risk in the Environment: Diagnostics, Integration Benchmarking, Learning and Elicitation (CREDIBLE)'s publications by clicking here

PURE Associate Case Studies

The case studies for the NERC PURE Associate Collaborations are available by clicking on the links below:

Public Health England and University of Reading: Expanding and improving environmental heat and cold-stress forecasts

Centrica and the Univeristy of Reading: Week 3 Probabilistic Wind power forecasting

Seafood Shetland and the Scottish Association for Marine Science: Early warning and risk assessment of shellfish toxicity

CAFOD and University College London: Risk Visualisation and quantification for disaster risk reduction

MicroEnsure and University of Reading: Satellite-based rainfall estimates in weather based index insurance (Satwin)

MetOffice and Kings College London:Enhancing Calculation and Communication of UK Wildfire Severity Forecasts

JBA Trust and University of Lancaster: Tools and guidance for covariate analysis of threshold exceedances


Forestry Commission and University of Edinburgh: A model for standardised pest and disease risk assessment of UK Forests for carbon buffer and insurance purposes

Maplecroft and University of East Anglia: Embedding future projections of climate and extreme hydro-meteorological events into strategic risk management and decision making

Public Health England and University of Durham: Extreme weather events  and vulnerable people: Harnessing science to practice

Practical Action Consulting and University of Lancaster: Operation probabilistic flood forecasting model of the karnali river basin in Nepal

Scottish Government and Heriot-Watt University: Flood Awareness through engagement (FATE)

Forestry Commission England, Forest Research and University of Manchester: Developing a risk assessment approach for forest fire at the rural-urban interface: potential of the wildfire threat analysis framework

Department of Energy and Climate Change and London School of Economics: Visualisation of climate models for the DECC 2050 calculator 

RNLI and London School of Economics: Probabilistic weather information for RNLI

Risk Management Solutions and University College London:Incorporating parameter uncertainty in hurricane risk modelling


Concern Worldwide and University of Ulster: A Near Real Time Aftershock Forecasting Tool for Humanitarian Risk Assessment and Emergency Planning

EDF Energy and University of Oxford: Statistical model to predict the risk of clogging of water intake  by marine species

Foreign and Commonwealth Office, British Geological Survey and University of East Anglia: Trialling analysis of eruptive scenarios via economic and probabilistic aproaches on Tristan da cunha, and its application to decision support


Related Assets

  • Risk Modelling & Uncertainty

A little about PURE: knowledge exchange network

The PURE knowledge exchange network brings together researchers, industrialists and policy-makers in uncertainty and risk for natural hazards. Its objective is to help shape the direction of future research in environmental risk management.

Latest news

Forthcoming event: Wildfire research and its impact on Policy, Planning and Operations: The Swinley Forest fire

Wildfire research and its impact on Policy, Planning and Operations: The Swinley Forest...

Book launch: Revolutionize business with the power of Big Data

  Dr Patrick McSharry, University of Oxford, has co-authored a book called "Big Data...

International expert meeting on bridge scour

An international meeting on bridge scour is taking place in London on 16-17 February 2015. ...

Upcoming events

Mon 03 Jun 2013

5th International Workshop on Compositional Data Analysis (CoDaWork 2013)

Jun 03 / 09:00 until Jun 07 / 17:00

Discussion forum for the statistical treatment and modelling of compositional data or other...

From PURE: knowledge exchange network

Mon 15 Jul 2013

Cabot/CREDIBLE Summer School 2013 - Risk and uncertainty in natural hazard

Jul 15 / 09:00 until Jul 19 / 17:00

A summer school that might appeal to PhD students and postdocs working in computer experiments,...

From PURE: knowledge exchange network

Wed 02 Jul 2014

Insurance Modelling & Data Expose (IMDE 2014)

All Day

The event is an opportunity for data and model providers from academia to directly reach the...

From PURE: knowledge exchange network